How to use the Punter's Genie Form Analyis

  Contents

• Introduction
• Options available for the charts
• How to read the charts
• Important Information about the range of scores
• Future analysis

Introduction to RaceScore and ConditionsScore

The Punter's Genie Form Analysis Tool is designed to show how the individual form of the three major contributors to a runner stack up - namely the Horse, the Jockey and the Trainer. It is well known that the past form of any of these items is an indicator of how well they will do in the next race. However, there are two major questions that need to be answered when considering form:

1. How is the Horse/Jockey/Trainer going to fare considering the conditions of the race for which they are entered
   
2. How is the Horse/Jockey/Trainer going to fare considering not only the conditions of the race but also their competition within that race.

To cover these two major areas of form study we have developed ConditionsScore and RaceScore, two extremely powerful form analysis models.

ConditionsScore looks at the form of the Horse, Jockey and Trainer with respect to the conditions of the current race (track, course shape, going, tightness, etc)

RaceScore looks at the form for the Horse, Jockey and Trainer for the current race and also takes into account the competition in that race.

Where these two models differ from our usual Race Prediction models is in their fundamental nature. The Race Prediction Models attempt to not only work out which horse will win a race, but also work out which bets are best value and the strength of each prediction. To achieve this we need to feed in the available odds for each horse which is a step further than strict form analysis (as although the available odds usually reflect the form initially, they can change for all sorts of reasons, like inside knowledge, weight of money, the horse's general appearance etc.).

The RaceScore and ConditionsScore models are fundamental in nature because they are based purely on the facts available regarding that Horse, Jockey or Trainer - the current odds available for each horse are not fed into the models. This means that where our predictions may be affected by an adverse amount of money going onto one particular horse, our RaceScore and ConditionsScore form figures are not affected. For this reason the form figures are equally valid from as soon as they are posted right through the day.

The form score for each component of the runner (horse, jockey and trainer) is calculated using only variables that are relevent to it. So to calculate the form score for a horse, we only use variables that are relevent to the performance of the horse, and not those dealing with the performance of the jockey or trainer. Of course, This is still no simple task - each form score is calculated using thousands of variables and combinations of variables. Our fourth form score - the Composite form score - is derived using a combination of the horse's, jockey's and trainer's form scores. Again, this is not a simple average - we have calculated the past form scores for thousands of races and analysised them to find out what proportion of each component's score actually contributes to the overall (or Composite) form figure for the runner.

Options available for the charts

The charts might look complicated at first, but we can assure you that they are actually very straightforward. Each of the components of the runner (the Horse, Jockey and Trainer) are given a score based complex analysis of their past form. These form figures are then shown on the chart for each runner. You can select which ones you wish to see at any time.

The fourth form score that can be shown on the chart is the RunnerComposite form score. This is a combined score for all three components of the runner - as we mentioned earlier, this is not just an average, but quite a complex combination of all elements of the runner.

These are the options available for each chart:

Form Score Type
Here you have the option of choosing whether you wish to view the ConditionsScore (Conditions Form Score) or RaceScore (Race Form Score).

Race
From this drop down menu you can choose which race you want to see the form figures for. Initially we will be just dealing with Flat races, and the Jumps will be developed later.

Include and Order
Here you can choose which form figure you wish to see on the chart and also how the runners are ordered. You can choose any combination of Horse, Jockey, Trainer and Composite. If you choose no items to show then the chart will just show "No Data".

The Order By list only contains the form options you have selected to view (Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Composite) plus one other, Horse Name, allowing you to order the runners by the horse's name.

Form Scale
Sometimes it may be useful to view the form figures on a logarithmic scale so we have included that facility here.

How to read the charts

Here are a couple of sample charts to help explain what the various parts mean. We have chosen an example with all four options ticked, ordered by "Composite" and have removed some sections to save space.

This chart is for 23rd April 2007 Pontefract 2.40pm with the ConditionsScore form showing.

This chart is for the same race but showing the RaceScore figures:

The legend at the bottom of the chart shows you how the individual form scores are coloured, but it will always be as follows:

Red: Horse       Orange: Jockey      Green: Trainer       Blue: Composite

For each of your selected items (Horse, Jockey, Trainer and Composite) we will mark the best one on the chart as shown in the examples.

As you can see from both of these charts Stringsofmyheart is well fancied based on our analysis of the form. When looking at the conditions of the race only (top chart), Stringsofmyheart was the best Horse, had the best Jockey and also had the best composite. However, when we also consider the rest of the competition in the race (bottom chart), Stringsofmyheart only has the best Trainer and Composite form. Always Best is the best horse, and Force Group has the best Jockey.

This tells us a few things, although a lot of this is open to interpretation. Lets take the Jockey for example. When considering purely the conditions of the race (ConditionsScore) D. Holland would be expected to win the race, all other things being equal. However, when considering the rest of the competition in the race (RaceScore) D. Hollands is no longer expected to win (again, all other things being equal). This could mean that when each Jockey is considered individually D. Holland is the best, but when D. Holland is racing against M. Hills (amongst the others) then M. Hills would be expected to come out on top. If D. Holland and M. Hills have a history of racing against each other then this could indicate that although M. Hills is the lower ranked Jockey, he actually performs better when racing against D. Holland - the reasons for this sort of anomaly probably being the cause of many heated discussions in the pub between fans of the sport!

As we say, this is all open to plenty of interpretation, but this is the beauty of these form figures. They are based purely on the facts of the race excluding the available odds, so by looking at them and comparing them with the results of the race we can make interesting and accurate interpretations of why things unfolded as they did.

Oh - and the result of the race? Stringsofmyheart won (at 8/1) after a bit of a battle with Force Group (7/1) towards the line.

Important information about the form scores

Unknown entities

If a horse, jockey or trainer is unknown (i.e. this is its first outing) then it gets nominal score below the "OK" mark. This ensures a natural element of caution in the unknowns.

Range of the Scores

Each element of the runner is scored from 0 to 1000. This is the theoretical range for the element, but not all elements have ever reached their theoretical best. We have measured the form of each horse, jockey and trainer over the last 10 years and the following table shows the maximum score achieved by each for both ConditionsScores and RaceScores.

As you can see, comparing the runner with the rest of the field brings down the maximum Form Score they seem to be able to achieve.

The reason why we have left these scores as they are is that the "OK" score (i.e. not poor and not good) for all elements is 100. Therefore, anything scoring over 100 is expected to perform well, while anything scoring under 100 is expected to perform poorly.

Future Analysis

We will be using these form figures ourselves for various purposes. They will be fed into the prediction models to improve them. We will also be analysing them over time and looking for an optimal betting strategy that relies only on them. This might have advantages (possibly higher odds winners) and disadvantages (more volatility) over our standard prediction models, but we are quite excited by some of the results we are seeing so far!

Most importantly, as these form figures represent our purest analysis of the form of Horses, Jockeys and Trainers yet they should become an invaluable tool for our subscribers who prefer to do some of their own analysis before making their bets.