Punter's Genie approached by Newsweek Japan
for Analysis of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

For updated predictions for this race, see the bottom of the page.

We were approached at the beginning of September by a Newsweek reporter who was researching an article for Newsweek Japan on the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as there was a lot of interest in Japan on the chances of the very successful Japanese horse Deep Impact.

As the race was a month away we had to make some assumptions about the jockeys who would ride the horses. We have also had to make an assumption on what the race going would be.

We aim to update these predictions over the course of this week for those interested – so keep popping back to the site.

As our regular members and subscribers will appreciate this is not normally how we approach race predictions. We produce race predictions for the next days racing and only in the UK. However the systems we have working in the background allow us to produce predictions for any type of race anywhere in the world (so if you have a particular request then please do let us know!). We have previously predicted the winners of both the Melbourne Cup and the Breeders Cup.

The model believed that it would be a very close race between Deep Impact and Hurricane Run, the model favours Hurricane Run slightly, if (as we have assumed it is run with Kieron Fallon in the saddle). The model has estimated that Hurricane Run has a probability of winning of 23%, compared to Deep Impacts’ 20% and we have Shirocco coming in third at 17.6% chance of winning. We are able to convert these probabilities into what we believe that bookies should therefore offer as prices for the horse winning, we believe that Deep Impact should be offered at 4/1 and Hurricane Run at 3.3/1. The model believes that there is potentially too much variability in the race to suggest betting on any horse however – which means it should be a thrilling race to watch!

For those who would like further information on the race we provide the same historical background we produced for Newsweek below. We have also reproduced our graph of each horse's percentage chance of winning when we did the analysis. Notice that some of these horses are now non-runners, and this will be reflected when we redo the analysis later in the week.

Some background to the Longchamp Course

The Longchamp racecourse is used for Flat racing and stretches over 57 hectares between the Seine and the Bois de Boulogne in Paris. It is a right handed and shaped in a large horse-shoe loop that rises gently initially before gradually descending down to the long right-hand bend, which leads to the 500 metres (2½ furlongs) finishing straight. The first ever race was run on Sunday 27th 1857 in the presence of Napoleon III.

Some background to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the jewel in the crown of French racing and part of the prestigious World Series Racing Championship.

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is a Group 1 Flat horse race for three-year-old and above thoroughbreds (excluding geldings) run over a distance of 2,400 metres (approximately 1 mile 4 furlongs) raced on turf at Longchamp racecourse on the first Sunday in October.

The race brings together the winners of the Derby races at Epsom and in Ireland, Italy and Germany.

Arc de Triomphe Weekend is followed by 55,800 spectators and 1 billion television viewers in 200 countries! It takes place every first weekend in October.

First run on October 3rd 1920, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe was a "spin-off" from the Grand Prix de Paris.

The Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe has been run 84 times since 1920. Sunday 1st October 2006 will herald the 85th running of what is generally considered to be the world's greatest horserace.

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe was first run at Longchamp racecourse on Sunday October 3rd 1920. The first horse across the line was Comrade, who picked up FF150,000. EUR 1.14 million of the race’s EUR 2 million prize money goes to the winner. Last years winner was the Irish horse Hurricane Run ridden by Kieron Fallon Over the last 10 years the bookies favourite (or joint-favourite) has won 5 times. There have been 5 Irish winners, 3 French and 2 US. A Japanese horse has not won this race….to date! :-)

Graphs of Odds of Winning (note: some of these are now non-runners)

Updated Predictions, 30th September

After rerunning the model against this race again with all of te extra information we didn't have last time, we can see that, for any going around Good Shirocco has the advantage over Hurricane Run and Deep Impact. However, if the going were to be Soft or Firm, then Hurricane Run would gain the advantage. All of our predictions have Deep Impact in third place, following the bookie's sentiment about its chances.

Here are the charts for the reletive chances of each horse winning for all goings from Firm to Soft. From these you can see how the going would affect each of the horses.

The expected going at Longchamp for the meeting is GOOD.