Using Punter's Genie Predictions
There are some simple rules to follow to get the best out of our predictions. In
all cases (backing and laying) you should follow the recommended bets with the recommended
stakes as shown in the predictions, but the following should clarify some points.
The Betting Bank
The size of your betting bank is fairly important when you think about the possible
losing streaks that you will need to weather. Losing streaks are an inevitable part
of any sort of gambling, but if you have a large enough bank they should not empty
it as long as the system itself is not a long term losing system. As an example,
our Multi-Lay product is showing good long term profits so we can be pretty hopeful
that any losing streak will turn around at some point and things will get back onto
the upward slope.
For the Back and Place products we would recommend a bank of 50 points.
For the Lay products we would recommend a bank of 300 points. This may seem quite
high, but it at least swallows up the worst losing streak we have ever had on the
Multi-Lay product. And that streak was in August last year, well before a change
to model brought about the nice steady profits we have seen from mid-August to March.
The 300 point figure can also be extrapolated from the suggested Back bank where
the average exposure is 1 point - our average exposure on a Multi-Lay race is 6
points, and 6x50=300points. Funny how these things just work out!
What to bet on
For the Back to Win and Place predictions you
should place a bet only on a horse which is given a stake. The stake will be 0.5,
1 or 2 points depending on how string we thing the prediction is. If there is no
stake next to a horse in the predictions then you should not make any bet on that
horse. You should try to get the highest price possible (see below on getting the
best price).
For the Single-Lay predictions you should lay each horse that has
a stake of "1" against it in the predictions. there will only be a maximum of one
lay per race for the Single-Lay predictions. You should try to get the lowest price
possible (see below on getting the best price). Do not place a lay bet if you can't
get it at 6.75/1 or less
For the Multi-Lay predictions you should lay each horse that has
a stake of "1" against it in the predictions. There can be many horses to lay in
each race, with the idea that the total expected return is higher than in the Single-Lay
predictions. You should, again, try to get the lowest price possible for each horse
(see below on getting the best price). Do not place a lay bet if you can't get it
at 6.75/1 or less.
When to make your bet
Knowing when to make your bet is crucial to making to absolutle most out of any
betting system. Unfortunatly, it is also one of the hardest questions to answer.
We are regularly asked how to decide when to place bets, but it really comes down
to experience. The more you watch the movement of prices in a race the more you
will get an idea of when is the best time to place your bet. The direction a price
is heading can give you some indication. For example, if a price is steadily moving
out then you may wish to hold on and place a back bet closer to the race. However,
if you think it will continue to move out then you'd want to place your lay bets
sooner rather than later.
How to place your bets
For placing back bets you can choose any bookmaker or exchange, but you will often
get better prices from the Exchanges. For placing Lay bets you will have to use
one of the Exchanges, but in reality the only one worth considering is BetFair due
to the high liquidity providing lay prices close to the back prices. Where there
is reduced liquidity (in an exchange with few clients for example) you will find
that there is a large spread between the back and lay prices.
If you have trouble placing all of the bets you would like to place then there are
companies that can help you out. We can't really make any recommendation (as we
have not had direct experience of them ourselves) but if you search the web for
bet placement services then you may find some useful companies. Also, the excellent
Racing Index site has some suggestions
here.